Why do we have to Combat Desertification?
At least 90% of the inhabitants of drylands live in developing nations, where they also suffer from poor economic and social conditions. This situation is exacerbated by land degradation because of the reduction in productivity, the precariousness of living conditions and the difficulty of access to resources and opportunities.
A downward spiral is created in many underdeveloped countries by overgrazing, land exhaustion and overdrafting of groundwater in many of the marginally productive world regions due to overpopulation pressures to exploit marginal drylands for farming. Decision-makers are understandably averse to invest in arid zones with low potential. This absence of investment contributes to the marginalisation of these zones.When unfavourable agro-climatic conditions are combined with an absence of infrastructure and access to markets, as well as poorly adapted production techniques and an underfed and undereducated population, most such zones are excluded from development.
Desertification often causes rural lands to become unable to support the same sized populations that previously lived there. This results in mass migrations out of rural areas and into urban areas, particularly in Africa. Because of these migrations into the cities, there are often large numbers of unemployed people who end up living in slums.
Rates of change in the extent of desertified areas in the drylands: Solid lines indicate the best case; dashed lines indicate the worst case for desertification in each of the MA scenarios.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
The MA developed four scenarios to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well-being. The scenarios explored two global development paths (globalized versus regionalized societies and economies) and two different approaches for ecosystem management (reactive and proactive).
In reactive management, problems are addressed only after they become obvious, whereas proactive management attempts to maintain ecosystem services for the long term. These scenarios were selected to explore contrasting transitions of global society up to the year 2050.
1. Globalized world with reactive ecosystem management; with an emphasis on equity, economic growth, and public goods such as infrastructure and education (also called Global Orchestration)
2. Regionalized world with reactive ecosystem management; with an emphasis on security and economic growth (also called Order from Strength)
3. Regionalized world with proactive ecosystem management, with an emphasis on local adaptations and learning (also called Adapting Mosaic)
4. Globalized world with proactive ecosystem management, and an emphasis on green technologies (also called TechnoGarden)
